The biggest problem we can get is this.

Team Black · Posted: Wed Dec 13, 2006 11:53 pm Post subject:

I think it'll come to equalibrium. When we depleat the earth's resources enough, it will put our exponential progress to a screeching halt, but I don't think it will be the end.

I visualize it as the "wolves and rabbits" model. The number of rabbits increases, it will result in a greater food support for the wolves, and the wolf population increases.
When the wolves increase, they'll eat more rabbits, thus DECREASING the rabbit population.
Less rabbits get eaten, their population increases again
and so on and so forth. Equalibrium.

The depleation of earth's resources will have a dramatically negative impact on the human race, but still it won't be the end for us entirely. We'll just be depleated in population...then it'll give nature a chance to recoup.

...or maybe nature is already beyond recovery. In that case, yeah, we're all gonna die.

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Apex · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:12 pm Post subject:

If it makes anyone feel any better, we will all probibly die before global warming kills us by means of meteors.

Clazzy · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 4:47 pm Post subject:

No, we won't. The probability of Apophis (the meteorite with the highest chance of hitting) is about 1 in 45,000. Being struck by an asteroid is highly unlikely. Story, end of.

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Apex · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 5:07 pm Post subject:

There are still thousands of unknown bodies out there waiting to drop in and say hi. Above that, asteroids, meteors, ect., are getting knocked out of the asteroid belt all the time.

Clazzy · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 5:49 pm Post subject:

We're a very small target in this solar system, a collision is very unlikely indeed. It's not like the universe is how it was a few billion years ago. When the solar system was being formed, there were pieces of rock flying around everywhere crashing into planets. As time goes on, these collide with planets (usually Jupiter and Saturn, since they're the largest targets) until there are none left. We won't get any from other solar systems at all.
If you don't get just how unlikely it is, let me describe a nice demo for you:
Get one person to run your house then get a person about 200m to throw a ball at your house (while you're running around) and see if it hits you. If they throw it randomly without being able to see you, it has a very small chance of hitting you. Of course, finding somebody to throw that far would be a challenge, but that's the kind of chances you're dealing with here. To be honest, the chances are lower than that.

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Team SomeGuy · General **Joined**: 18 Aug 2006

Concerning meteor collisions most likely any impact in the foreseeable future is going to be a meteor no bigger than a small building AT LARGEST. Most of them would be smaller than compact cars.

They had a story in my area about some kind of meteor a couple of days ago. If I heard its "landing" location right I can walk over to that spot and find out if it made it to the ground.

If it happened in the summer wed know if it hit because it would start a fire but this time of year between the snow and cold, fires are unlikely.

Clazzy · Posted: Thu Dec 14, 2006 10:32 pm Post subject:

A car-sized asteroid would still cause a fair bit of damage. A 1m-wide meteorite has a power of about 5KT which is a great deal (the first A-bomb was 13KT, for reference).

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Team SomeGuy · General **Joined**: 18 Aug 2006

1 meter or 1 mile?

A 1x1x1 meter asteroid (depending on its composition/density) would be like quite a few large caliber WW2 (like the Yamatos 18-inch) artillery shells yes but 5 KT is pushing it if its made of weak/low density materials (as most space debris is)

a 1x1x1 MILE asteroid would cause at least significant REGIONAL devastation. It would flatten a fairly large city to say the least. It would also have significant impact on world climate and other factors.

Clazzy · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 1:03 am Post subject:

1m, 1 (one) metre. 1M, 1 (one) mile.

You'd be surprised how fast these meteorites are coming (~5km/s is perfectly reasonable).

I just did a (better) calculation and I'll admit to being a bit off. If we assume the rock is spherical (r=1m) and has a density of 2000kg/m^3 (compacted rock with some iron thrown in, at a guess) then it has a mass of about 8000kg. If we assume velocity of 5km/s then its KE is ~1x10^11J. 1 ton of dynamite is about 4x10^9J, so we're talking about a 25 ton explosion. Still quite a punch, is it not? If it hit in the wrong place it would level a good portion of a city, then you have to remember that it will never hit vertically so it will knock through a lot of buildings. The velocity could end up much higher, too, especially since our planet moves at about 30km/s anyway. If we assume it's going at 30km/s (resultant velocity if the asteroid is stationary in the path of our planet) then you get a 3KT blast. Scary.

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